How environmental data enables intelligent navigation: Factors assessment of affecting the navigation in the Northeast Arctic Route

Abstract

Due to the more favorable navigational environment and higher safety along Northeast Arctic Route, this route is being used more and more frequently for international shipping. In this research, the factor analysis method is applied to assess the navigational environment of each sea area in the Northeast Arctic Route, revealing the effects of Arctic navigation influence factor on the navigational environment, and analyzing the change trend of the navigational environment of different sea areas in different seasons. Further, the effects of multiple factors on the number of voyages are discussed through multiple stepwise regression model, including the navigational environment score, geopolitical risk, export & import trade and the probability of pollution accidents, then the Interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) method combined with seasonal decomposition is explored the effect of emergencies on the number of voyages on the Northeast Arctic Route. The number of voyages on the Northeast Arctic Route has been altered to varying degrees by the occurrence of various emergencies. Further, the Yamal LNG project and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have a significant effect on the number of voyages, while the Covid-19 epidemic has a lesser effect on the number of voyages.