The propagation of business expectations within the European Union

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI:10.1002/jae.3075

Anja Sebbesen, Harald Oberhofer

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the propagation of firm expectations within the European Union (EU). To this end, we combine information from EU-wide official business surveys with input–output data. Econometrically, we model interdependencies in economic activities via input–output linkages and apply space-time models with common factors. The resulting evidence provides indication for the existence of substantial spillover effects in expectation formation. They are transmitted both upstream and downstream the European value chain, but the latter channel matters more.

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欧盟内部商业期望的传播

本文以实证研究的方式探讨了企业预期在欧盟内部的传播。为此，我们将欧盟范围内的官方商业调查信息与投入产出数据相结合。从经济学角度看，我们通过投入产出联系来模拟经济活动中的相互依存关系，并应用具有共同因素的时空模型。由此得出的证据表明，在预期形成过程中存在着巨大的溢出效应。溢出效应在欧洲价值链的上游和下游都有传播，但后者更为重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Econometrics Multiple-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.