The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI:10.1002/jae.3062

Alessandro Barbarino, Travis J. Berge, Andrea Stella

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Output gaps that are estimated in real time can differ substantially from those estimated after the fact. We provide a comprehensive comparison of real-time output gap estimates, with the aim of understanding this real-time instability. Using a statistical decomposition, we find that including Okun's law relationship improves real-time stability by alleviating the end-point problem. Models that include the unemployment rate also produce output gaps with relevant economic content.

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产出缺口估算的稳定性和经济相关性

实时估算的产出缺口与事后估算的产出缺口可能存在很大差异。我们对实时产出缺口估计值进行了全面比较，旨在了解这种实时不稳定性。通过统计分解，我们发现纳入奥肯定律关系可以缓解终点问题，从而提高实时稳定性。包含失业率的模型也能产生具有相关经济内容的产出缺口。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Econometrics Multiple-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.