Seismic risk prioritization of masonry building stocks using machine learning

Abstract

The seismic risk mitigation plans are vital since vulnerable structures are prone to partial or total collapse under the effect of future major earthquake events. Therefore, vulnerable structures in large building stocks should be determined using robust and accurate methods to prevent loss of lives and property. In the current state-of-the-art, the risk states (i.e., whether risky or not) of structures completely depend on the experience of the reconnaissance team of engineers, which could not result in standardized decisions. In this study, machine learning has been integrated into the decision-making algorithm to classify more precise and reliable seismic risk states of masonry buildings, categorizing them into up to four risk categories. For this purpose, a large database, including 12 features and detailed seismic risk analysis results of 4356 masonry buildings, is formed. Firstly, the input variables are preprocessed using feature engineering methods. Then, several machine learning algorithms are utilized to produce a network to estimate the risk state of masonry buildings in association with the risk states obtained from the detailed analysis results. As a result of the analysis of these algorithms, the correct prediction percentages for the testing database of the proposed method for two, three, and four risk states classification are predicted as approximately 87.5%, 86.6%, and 79.0%, respectively. This new approach makes it possible to produce risk color maps of large building stocks and reduce the number of buildings that require immediate action.