Drought risk assessment based on hazard, vulnerability, and coping capacity concepts for hot and dry climate regions of Iran

IF 4.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI:10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101077

Mohsen Bostani , Taghi Tavousi , Peyman Mahmoudi , Andries Jordaan , Seyed Mahdi Amir Jahanshahi

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Due to the complex and multi-dimensional nature of droughts, it is not possible to assess drought-induced damage and its consequences for various social, economic, and environmental aspects of societies by relying only on a univariate index such as precipitation-based drought indices. The present study aimed to develop a practical and scientific framework based on hazard, vulnerability (social, economic, and environmental), and coping capacity to generate a drought risk map for the hot and dry climate regions of Iran. Accordingly, the Drought Hazard Index (DHI), Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI), and Drought Coping Capacity Index (DCCI) were derived from “the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)”, “16 social, economic and environmental variables” and “three social, economic variables”, respectively. The layers of all variables of the three indices in the GIS were provided, and they were combined in the form of an equation to produce a drought hazard map of central and southeastern Iran. The results indicate that the counties most and least vulnerable to drought were located in the southeast and west of the case study area, respectively. A number of large households, long distances from provincial centers, and soil erosion were the most important social, economic, and environmental factors making the southeast of the case study (including south of Sistan and Baluchestan and south of Kerman provinces) most vulnerable to drought. Due to their high drought coping capacity, counties located in the west of the case study (west of Kerman and south of Yazd provinces) were least vulnerable to drought. Extended support for low-income households by charitable organizations, tertiary education, and most importantly, a variety of jobs and career opportunities were the most important factors in reducing vulnerability in this part of Iran. Furthermore, our methodology by taking social, economic, and environmental dimensions into account as risk, vulnerability, and coping capacity indices can be far more efficient than the methods considering only risk and vulnerability factors.

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基于危害、脆弱性和应对能力概念的伊朗干热气候区干旱风险评估

由于干旱的复杂性和多维性，仅依靠单变量指数（如基于降水的干旱指数）无法评估干旱引发的损害及其对社会的社会、经济和环境等各方面造成的后果。本研究旨在开发一个基于灾害、脆弱性（社会、经济和环境）和应对能力的实用科学框架，以生成伊朗干热气候地区的干旱风险图。因此，分别从 "标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）"、"16 个社会、经济和环境变量 "以及 "3 个社会、经济变量 "中得出了干旱危害指数（DHI）、干旱脆弱性指数（DVI）和干旱应对能力指数（DCCI）。提供了地理信息系统中三个指数所有变量的图层，并将它们以等式的形式进行组合，绘制出伊朗中部和东南部的干旱灾害图。结果表明，最易受干旱影响的县和最不易受干旱影响的县分别位于案例研究区域的东南部和西部。户数多、远离省中心和水土流失是案例研究东南部（包括锡斯坦和俾路支斯坦省南部和克尔曼省南部）最易受干旱影响的最重要的社会、经济和环境因素。位于案例研究西部（克尔曼省西部和亚兹德省南部）的各县由于抗旱能力较强，最不容易受到干旱的影响。慈善组织对低收入家庭的广泛支持、高等教育，以及最重要的各种工作和职业机会，是降低伊朗这一地区脆弱性的最重要因素。此外，我们的方法将社会、经济和环境因素作为风险、脆弱性和应对能力指数加以考虑，比只考虑风险和脆弱性因素的方法要有效得多。

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来源期刊

Environmental Development Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

8.40

自引率

1.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： Environmental Development provides a future oriented, pro-active, authoritative source of information and learning for researchers, postgraduate students, policymakers, and managers, and bridges the gap between fundamental research and the application in management and policy practices. It stimulates the exchange and coupling of traditional scientific knowledge on the environment, with the experiential knowledge among decision makers and other stakeholders and also connects natural sciences and social and behavioral sciences. Environmental Development includes and promotes scientific work from the non-western world, and also strengthens the collaboration between the developed and developing world. Further it links environmental research to broader issues of economic and social-cultural developments, and is intended to shorten the delays between research and publication, while ensuring thorough peer review. Environmental Development also creates a forum for transnational communication, discussion and global action. Environmental Development is open to a broad range of disciplines and authors. The journal welcomes, in particular, contributions from a younger generation of researchers, and papers expanding the frontiers of environmental sciences, pointing at new directions and innovative answers. All submissions to Environmental Development are reviewed using the general criteria of quality, originality, precision, importance of topic and insights, clarity of exposition, which are in keeping with the journal''s aims and scope.