Stories and systems: Exploring technological impact in complex systems through creative writing techniques

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123800

Kim Wilkins , Ksenia Ivanova , Helen Marshall , Lisa Bennett , Joanne Anderton

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This research article argues for the effectiveness of storytelling techniques not only for communicating complex systems, but also for analysing complex systems and modelling outcomes. This kind of analysis and modelling of impacts is vital in strategic decision making and technology foresight. Strategy engages at many points with complex sociotechnical systems. Disruptive technological impact does not necessarily inhere in the technological objects or capabilities themselves. Rather, disruption arises from a convergence of factors including social, human, and ethical considerations. These factors are manifold, difficult (if not impossible) to predict, and—when it comes to the actions of individuals—informed by unknowable subjective personal histories, experiences, and current circumstances. Faced with such opaque and constantly shifting contextual factors, foreseeing technological impact presents challenges that are difficult to surmount. We show how the techniques of storytelling shed light on those challenges.

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故事与系统：通过创意写作技巧探索复杂系统中的技术影响

这篇研究文章论证了讲故事技术的有效性，它不仅能传播复杂系统，还能分析复杂系统并为结果建模。这种影响分析和建模对于战略决策和技术展望至关重要。战略在许多方面都与复杂的社会技术系统有关。颠覆性的技术影响并不一定存在于技术对象或技术能力本身。相反，破坏性产生于各种因素的融合，包括社会、人类和伦理方面的考虑。这些因素是多方面的，难以预测（如果不是不可能的话），当涉及到个人行为时，还受到不可知的个人主观历史、经历和当前环境的影响。面对这些不透明且不断变化的背景因素，预测技术影响是一项难以克服的挑战。我们将展示讲故事的技巧是如何揭示这些挑战的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Multiple-

CiteScore

21.30

自引率

10.80%

发文量

813

期刊介绍： Technological Forecasting and Social Change is a prominent platform for individuals engaged in the methodology and application of technological forecasting and future studies as planning tools, exploring the interconnectedness of social, environmental, and technological factors. In addition to serving as a key forum for these discussions, we offer numerous benefits for authors, including complimentary PDFs, a generous copyright policy, exclusive discounts on Elsevier publications, and more.