From the Fringe to the front-stage. European immigration and the Far-Right vote: An IV approach

IF 2.9 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI:10.1016/j.qref.2024.101925

Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou, Costas Roumanias

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Abstract

We use regional data spanning over 4500 electoral outcomes at NUTS3 level between 2000 and 2017 to assess the impact of immigration on Western European Far-Right voting. To deal with potential reverse causation, we use immigration in neighboring countries as an instrument for domestic immigration. The estimated effects of immigration are positive, significant and larger compared to those obtained by simple OLS and fixed effects regressions. Depending on the measure of immigration used, we find that a 1% increase in immigration stocks leads to a between 1.78% and 2.97% in Far-Right voting. Similar results are obtained using electoral outcomes and immigration shares at the NUTS2 level, where the effect of immigration is estimated between 3% and 5.32%. Our results are consistent with possible negative feedback from the Far-Right to immigration. Our estimated effects explain a large part of the observed rise in Far-Right in Western European countries that experienced high levels of immigration during the span of our sample.

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从边缘到前台。欧洲移民与极右翼选票：IV 方法

我们使用了 2000 年至 2017 年 NUTS3 级别 4500 多个选举结果的地区数据，以评估移民对西欧极右翼投票的影响。为了处理潜在的反向因果关系，我们使用邻国的移民作为国内移民的工具。与简单的 OLS 回归和固定效应回归相比，移民的估计影响是正的、显著的，并且更大。根据所使用的移民衡量标准，我们发现移民存量每增加 1%，极右翼投票率就会增加 1.78% 到 2.97%。使用 NUTS2 级别的选举结果和移民比例也得出了类似的结果，移民的影响估计在 3% 到 5.32% 之间。我们的结果与极右翼对移民可能产生的负反馈相一致。在我们的样本期间，西欧国家经历了高水平的移民，我们估计的效应解释了所观察到的极右翼势力上升的很大一部分原因。

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来源期刊

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

6.00

自引率

2.90%

发文量

118

期刊介绍： The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance (QREF) attracts and publishes high quality manuscripts that cover topics in the areas of economics, financial economics and finance. The subject matter may be theoretical, empirical or policy related. Emphasis is placed on quality, originality, clear arguments, persuasive evidence, intelligent analysis and clear writing. At least one Special Issue is published per year. These issues have guest editors, are devoted to a single theme and the papers have well known authors. In addition we pride ourselves in being able to provide three to four article "Focus" sections in most of our issues.