Improved reliability analysis and assessment method of occupant evacuation and its application in building fires

IF 4.7 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Safety Science Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI:10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106689

Zhanli Mao , Haonan Chen , Xin Chen , Liwei Zhang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Occupant evacuation is a critical issue in emergency events especially in fire accidents. The safety level of occupant evacuation is assessed using the method of reliability analysis and assessment in this study, which has been increasingly employed to describe parameters uncertainty and reliability probability. First, the concept of reliability probability index is proposed and defined as AEST divided by RSET, which can be adopted to develop the quantitative relationship between the reliability probability index and the reliability probability. Second, the correlation analysis between reliability probability and influencing factors is conducted through a case study. Third, the safety design zone and the dangerous design zone are further divided to provide guidance for engineering designers. Lastly, the sensitivity analysis is conducted to analyze the global sensitivity of the uncertainty parameters of occupant evacuation. The results show that the sensitivity of pre-movement time is the highest among the parameters, reaching 0.419, suggesting that it takes on a critical significance in the calculation of evacuation model, and the method proposed in this study can be well adopted to assess the reliability of occupant evacuation in building fires.

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改进的人员疏散可靠性分析和评估方法及其在建筑火灾中的应用

在紧急事件中，尤其是在火灾事故中，人员疏散是一个关键问题。本研究采用可靠性分析与评估的方法来评估人员疏散的安全等级，该方法越来越多地被用于描述参数的不确定性和可靠性概率。首先，提出了可靠性概率指数的概念，并将其定义为 AEST 除以 RSET，从而得出可靠性概率指数与可靠性概率之间的定量关系。其次，通过案例研究，对可靠性概率与影响因素之间的相关性进行了分析。第三，进一步划分安全设计区和危险设计区，为工程设计人员提供指导。最后，进行敏感性分析，分析乘员疏散不确定性参数的全局敏感性。结果表明，预动时间的灵敏度在各参数中最高，达到 0.419，表明其在疏散模型计算中具有关键意义，本研究提出的方法可很好地用于评估建筑火灾中人员疏散的可靠性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Safety Science 管理科学-工程：工业

CiteScore

13.00

自引率

9.80%

发文量

335

审稿时长

53 days

期刊介绍： Safety Science is multidisciplinary. Its contributors and its audience range from social scientists to engineers. The journal covers the physics and engineering of safety; its social, policy and organizational aspects; the assessment, management and communication of risks; the effectiveness of control and management techniques for safety; standardization, legislation, inspection, insurance, costing aspects, human behavior and safety and the like. Papers addressing the interfaces between technology, people and organizations are especially welcome.