Interpretable large-scale belief rule base for complex industrial systems modeling with expert knowledge and limited data

Abstract

Complex system modeling technology is a hot topic. Nowadays, many complex industrial systems present three characteristics: multiple input indicators, limited data and interpretability requirements. With good interpretability, belief rule base (BRB) serves as an efficient tool for modeling complex systems. However, as the number of input indicators of industrial systems increases, BRB suffers from the combinatorial explosion problem, which makes it hard to generate large-scale BRB and optimize it while maintaining its interpretability. For this purpose, an interpretable large-scale BRB is proposed for complex systems with limited data, where expert knowledge can be utilized effectively. First, a framework for generating an initial large-scale BRB using expert knowledge and limited data is developed, including the determination of attribute weight, basic belief degree and rule weight. Afterwards, a new parameter optimization model is designed to reduce the burden of parameter optimization and maintain the interpretability of BRB, where the Adaptive Moment Estimation (Adam) algorithm is adopted to further improve the efficiency of large-scale parameter optimization. Finally, a health assessment case of an inertial navigation system (INS) verifies the proposed method.