Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution and driving factors of carbon emission in Shandong Province: based on the perspective of land use

IF 6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Jiahui Wu, Kongqing Li
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Abstract

Land use/cover change is the second major contributor to carbon emissions, following energy emissions. Studying provincial land-use carbon emissions is crucial for achieving the “double carbon” goal. This study selects 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province as the research object. It analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of carbon emissions in Shandong Province based on land-use data and energy consumption. In terms of net carbon emissions, this study utilizes the standard deviation ellipse and kernel density estimation to analyze net carbon emissions change from the municipal and regional perspectives. In terms of carbon ecological carrying capacity, not only the carbon ecological carrying capacity of forest and grassland was considered, but also the carbon ecological carrying capacity of crops in Shandong Province, which is a large grain province. Using the geographic detector to explore the drivers. Research findings indicate that carbon sources and sinks show a clear spatial and temporal distribution pattern, with the center of gravity of net carbon emissions extending to the northeast. Areas with high carbon ecological carrying capacity have high forest coverage, grassland coverage, and crop yields. Regarding driving factors, the urbanization rate, economic aggregate, and technological progress demonstrate significant explanatory power through single and interaction tests, suggesting that these factors are critical drivers of land-use carbon emissions within Shandong Province. Based on the spatiotemporal pattern analysis of land-use carbon emissions in Shandong Province, each city's growth rate and spatial distribution characteristics can be clarified, providing a scientific basis for the local government to formulate regional and differentiated emission-reduction policies. In addition, by exploring the driving factors of land-use carbon emissions in Shandong Province, the influence level of factors on carbon emissions can be revealed to provide references for formulating regional sustainable development strategies.

基于土地利用视角的山东省碳排放时空演变及驱动因素分析
土地利用/覆盖变化是继能源排放之后的第二大碳排放源。研究省级土地利用碳排放对实现 "双碳 "目标至关重要。本研究选取山东省 16 个地级市作为研究对象。根据土地利用数据和能源消耗情况,分析山东省碳排放的时空分布格局。在碳净排放量方面,本研究利用标准偏差椭圆和核密度估计,从市域和区域角度分析碳净排放量的变化。在碳生态承载力方面,不仅考虑了森林和草地的碳生态承载力,还考虑了粮食大省山东省农作物的碳生态承载力。利用地理探测器探究驱动因素。研究结果表明,碳源和碳汇呈现明显的时空分布格局,碳净排放重心向东北延伸。碳生态承载力高的地区,森林覆盖率、草地覆盖率和农作物产量都较高。在驱动因素方面,城镇化率、经济总量和技术进步通过单一检验和交互检验显示出显著的解释力,表明这些因素是山东省土地利用碳排放的关键驱动因素。基于山东省土地利用碳排放的时空格局分析,可以明确各城市的碳排放增长率和空间分布特征,为地方政府制定区域性、差异化的减排政策提供科学依据。此外,通过探究山东省土地利用碳排放的驱动因素,可以揭示各因素对碳排放的影响程度,为制定区域可持续发展战略提供参考。
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来源期刊
Environmental Sciences Europe
Environmental Sciences Europe Environmental Science-Pollution
CiteScore
11.20
自引率
1.70%
发文量
110
审稿时长
13 weeks
期刊介绍: ESEU is an international journal, focusing primarily on Europe, with a broad scope covering all aspects of environmental sciences, including the main topic regulation. ESEU will discuss the entanglement between environmental sciences and regulation because, in recent years, there have been misunderstandings and even disagreement between stakeholders in these two areas. ESEU will help to improve the comprehension of issues between environmental sciences and regulation. ESEU will be an outlet from the German-speaking (DACH) countries to Europe and an inlet from Europe to the DACH countries regarding environmental sciences and regulation. Moreover, ESEU will facilitate the exchange of ideas and interaction between Europe and the DACH countries regarding environmental regulatory issues. Although Europe is at the center of ESEU, the journal will not exclude the rest of the world, because regulatory issues pertaining to environmental sciences can be fully seen only from a global perspective.
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