Significant winter Atlantic Niño effect on ENSO and its future projection

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00790-3

Jae-Heung Park, Young-Min Yang, Yoo-Geun Ham, Hyun-Su Jo, Hyo-Jin Park, So-Eun Park, Chao Liu, Gagan Mandal, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug

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Abstract

The Atlantic Niño, a primary climatic variability mode in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, exhibits pronounced variability not only in boreal summer but also in winter. However, the role of the winter Atlantic Niño in trans-basin interactions remains underexplored compared to its summer counterpart. Through analysis of observational reanalysis data since the mid-twentieth century, here we found that the winter Atlantic Niño significantly influences the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), surpassing the impact of summer Atlantic Niño, with a longer lead time. This effect is reasonably captured in the CMIP6 Historical simulations from a multi-model ensemble perspective. Further analysis of the global warming scenario projects that the influence of winter Atlantic Niño on ENSO will persist into the future, in contrast to the reduced impact of summer Atlantic Niño. Therefore, these findings underscore the importance of further investigating the winter Atlantic Niño to gain a comprehensive understanding of trans-basin interactions and their future changes.

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冬季大西洋厄尔尼诺现象对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的显著影响及其未来预测

大西洋尼诺现象是赤道大西洋的一种主要气候变异模式，不仅在北方夏季表现出明显的变异性，而且在冬季也表现出明显的变异性。然而，与夏季大西洋尼诺现象相比，冬季大西洋尼诺现象在跨流域相互作用中的作用仍未得到充分探索。通过分析二十世纪中叶以来的观测再分析数据，我们发现冬季大西洋尼诺现象对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的发展有显著影响，超过了夏季大西洋尼诺现象的影响，而且前导时间更长。CMIP6 历史模拟从多模式集合的角度合理地捕捉到了这一影响。对全球变暖情景的进一步分析预测，冬季大西洋尼诺现象对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的影响将持续到未来，而夏季大西洋尼诺现象的影响则会减弱。因此，这些发现强调了进一步调查冬季大西洋尼诺现象以全面了解跨流域相互作用及其未来变化的重要性。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.