Geopolitical risk perceptions

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005

Yevheniia Bondarenko , Vivien Lewis , Matthias Rottner , Yves Schüler

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially.

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地缘政治风险认知

地缘政治风险无法用普遍的方式来衡量。我们根据当地报纸的报道开发了新的地缘政治风险指标，以考虑不同的看法。以俄罗斯为例，我们证明了从当地新闻来源识别出的地缘政治风险冲击会对俄罗斯经济产生重大不利影响，而从英语新闻来源识别出的地缘政治风险冲击则不会。我们通过分别分析国家控制媒体和独立媒体来控制受限制的新闻自由。我们采用新颖的俄罗斯制裁指数，说明地缘政治风险冲击的传播超出了制裁渠道。不过，制裁还是大大加剧了地缘政治风险冲击对通货膨胀的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.