A rapid analysis method for regional population distribution safety based on societal risk assessment

Abstract

The population distribution within areas potentially impacted by major accidents is crucial for societal risk analysis. Population data are essential for land use planning activities related to major accident hazards. However, repeated quantitative risk assessments (QRA) and diverse planning scenarios complicate planning decisions in Major Hazard Installation (MHI) areas. This study introduces an analysis method for the safety of population distribution in potential impact zones of major accidents. By combining accident simulation and population distribution characteristics analysis, we established standardized indicators that succinctly indicate safety thresholds for societal risks, addressing the challenge of rapidly assessing off-site population safety. A rapid formula meeting practical needs is provided for urban managers and planners, enabling them to easily evaluate how population density and distribution affect societal risks in MHI areas. Finally, we applied this method to the flammable and explosive hazardous material enterprises in Shijiazhuang, China, demonstrating its functionality and practicality. The application results suggest its potential as a useful decision-support method for guiding urban planning and emergency management. This work offers new insights and valuable demonstrations for enhancing vulnerability and land use risk assessments in MHI regions.