Survival status and its predictors among adult victims of road traffic accident admitted to public hospitals of Bahir Bar City, Amhara regional state, Northwest, Ethiopia, 2023: multi center retrospective follow-up study.

Abstract

Introduction: Road traffic accident is the most common cause of death in adults worldwide. Road traffic accident-related deaths increased from time to time in low- and middle-income countries including Ethiopia; however, there is limited evidence about Survival status and its predictors among adult victims of road traffic accidents admitted to Hospitals in Ethiopia specifically in the study area. Thus, this study aimed to assess Survival status and its predictors among adult victims of road traffic accident admitted to Hospitals.

Methods: An institutional-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted from July 01/2019 to June 30/2022. A total of 402 samples were chosen using simple random sampling. Data was collected by a prepared checklist from the victims' chart and entered into Epi-Data version 4.6 software and then exported to STATA version 14.1 for analysis. Kaplan-Meier failure function and log-rank test were computed. The assumption was checked by Schoenfeld residual test. All variables in bivariable analysis, p-value < 0.25 were entered into multivariable cox-regression model. Adjusted Hazard Ratio with 95% Confidence Interval was reported to declare the strength of association and statistical significance p-value of < 0.05. Model fitness was checked by using Cox-Snell residual. Data was presented by text, table, and graph.

Result: The median survival time was 504 h. From all, 63(15.6%) deaths, 57% of deaths occurred between 24 and 168 h of follow-up with an overall incidence of 15.34deaths per10, 000 victims-hours observation. According to the Kaplan-Meier failure curve together with the log-rank test, the incidence density rate of death among victims who had a complication during admission was71.86per10,000victims-hour observation (95%, CI:53.66-96.25), which is different from those who did not have complication 5.17per10,000person-hour observation (95%, CI:3.26-8.21). The incidence density rate of death among victims who had low level of arterial oxygen saturation (SPO2 < 95%) during admission was 82.87per10, 000 victims-hour observation (95%, CI: 63.15-108.75), which is different from those who had arterial oxygen saturation ≥ 95% 3.16per10, 000victims -hour observation (95%, CI: 1.75-5.71) Develop complication (AHR = 3.1,95% CI:1.44-6.70), systolic blood pressure measurement value ≤ 89 mmHg (AHR = 2.4,95% CI:1.10-5.19), not admitted intensive care unit (AHR = 0.46,95% CI:0.022-0.97), Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤ 8 (AHR = 2.9,95% CI:1.07-7.75), Glasgow Coma Scale score 9-12(AHR = 3.8,95% CI:1.61-8.97) and, level of arterial oxygen saturation ≤ 95% (AHR = 6.5,95% CI:2.38-17.64) were predictors of outcome variable.

Conclusion and recommendations: The median survival time was short. Complication, low systolic blood pressure measurement value, low Glasgow Coma Scale score, not admit to intensive care unit and low level of arterial oxygen saturation were significant predictors of the outcome variable. So that healthcare providers better give special attention and care to those victims admitted to Hospitals. A further prospective study is recommended.