{"title":"A power load forecasting method in port based on VMD-ICSS-hybrid neural network","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124246","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aiming at the problem of load fluctuation at the power end of large ports, we propose a hybrid neural network joint model based on Mode Decomposition (MD) and Change Point Detection (CPD) to accomplish the load forecasting. In this study, a two-stage joint prediction model is constructed. First, the number of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) in the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) process was dynamically adjusted by introducing an improved Signal Energy (SE) evaluation metric. Subsequently, a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (Bi-GRU) network is employed to predict these IMFs, and the potential effect of the breakpoints on the prediction outcomes is investigated using the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) method. Finally, the eigenmode functions are summed and reconstructed, and then combined with the breakpoint data as inputs for the second stage prediction. To ensure the efficiency of the second stage prediction, the Mogrifier Long-and Short-Term Memory (Mogrifier-LSTM) network structure is improved. In the two-stage model, the adaptive tuning of hyperparameters is implemented by a Hunter-Prey Optimization (HPO) algorithm based on a redesigned chaotic mapping strategy. During the simulation, various neural network topologies were employed to confirm the effectiveness of the model in port power load forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":10.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Energy","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924016295","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Aiming at the problem of load fluctuation at the power end of large ports, we propose a hybrid neural network joint model based on Mode Decomposition (MD) and Change Point Detection (CPD) to accomplish the load forecasting. In this study, a two-stage joint prediction model is constructed. First, the number of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) in the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) process was dynamically adjusted by introducing an improved Signal Energy (SE) evaluation metric. Subsequently, a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (Bi-GRU) network is employed to predict these IMFs, and the potential effect of the breakpoints on the prediction outcomes is investigated using the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) method. Finally, the eigenmode functions are summed and reconstructed, and then combined with the breakpoint data as inputs for the second stage prediction. To ensure the efficiency of the second stage prediction, the Mogrifier Long-and Short-Term Memory (Mogrifier-LSTM) network structure is improved. In the two-stage model, the adaptive tuning of hyperparameters is implemented by a Hunter-Prey Optimization (HPO) algorithm based on a redesigned chaotic mapping strategy. During the simulation, various neural network topologies were employed to confirm the effectiveness of the model in port power load forecasting.
期刊介绍:
Applied Energy serves as a platform for sharing innovations, research, development, and demonstrations in energy conversion, conservation, and sustainable energy systems. The journal covers topics such as optimal energy resource use, environmental pollutant mitigation, and energy process analysis. It welcomes original papers, review articles, technical notes, and letters to the editor. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts that bridge the gap between research, development, and implementation. The journal addresses a wide spectrum of topics, including fossil and renewable energy technologies, energy economics, and environmental impacts. Applied Energy also explores modeling and forecasting, conservation strategies, and the social and economic implications of energy policies, including climate change mitigation. It is complemented by the open-access journal Advances in Applied Energy.