Effect of electricity policy uncertainty and carbon emission prices on electricity demand in China based on mixed-frequency data models

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2024.101825

Wanbo Lu , Qibo Liu , Jie Wang

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper first constructs the electricity policy uncertainty (EPU) in China with textual methods and analyses the effect of the EPU and carbon emission prices (CEPs) on the total electricity demand. This paper also forecasts the demand for electricity in China with three mixed-frequency data models. The results show that the EPU index efficiently captures the uncertainty of China's electricity policy. The effects of EPU and CEPs on electricity demand are significant, and incorporating them into the forecasting model will improve the accuracy and timeliness. Moreover, compared with the ARMA model and LSTM neural networks, mixed-frequency data models perform better in electricity demand forecasting.

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基于混合频率数据模型的电力政策不确定性和碳排放价格对中国电力需求的影响

本文首先利用文本方法构建了中国电力政策不确定性（EPU），并分析了电力政策不确定性和碳排放价格（CEP）对电力总需求的影响。本文还利用三个混合频率数据模型对中国的电力需求进行了预测。结果表明，EPU 指数有效地捕捉了中国电力政策的不确定性。EPU 和 CEP 对电力需求的影响显著，将其纳入预测模型将提高预测的准确性和及时性。此外，与 ARMA 模型和 LSTM 神经网络相比，混合频率数据模型在电力需求预测中表现更好。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.