China's reaction to the Russia–Ukraine war: A test case for a global ‘Pax Sinica’?

Abstract

This article examines the Chinese government's stance on the Russia–Ukraine war, including the recent development of China's economic relations with Russia. It assesses the factors that have influenced Beijing's position and the narrative it has used to explain it. Considering China's outsized importance for global events, the article also explores what implications its positioning regarding the war can have for the future of the global order. Since Russia's invasion began, China's government has presented itself as a neutral party, but it has de facto adopted a pro-Russian position in the conflict. Beijing has primarily framed its stance on Ukraine in security terms, embedded in what is essentially a Realist narrative interlinked with pre-existing ideological worldviews among China's political elites. It has condoned Russia's invasion on the grounds that Moscow is defending its ‘legitimate security interests’, which is an implicit appeal to respect a great power's sphere of influence, even at the expense of smaller states' sovereignty. While this raises questions about the compatibility of Beijing's vision of global order with the broader interests of most other states of the Global South, China (alongside Russia) has intensified its efforts to court these states in the context of the Russia–Ukraine war.