Economic and environmental analysis of EVs' in urban transportation using system dynamics

Abstract

The higher initial cost of EVs compared to gasoline-powered vehicles can hinder their widespread adoption in various markets. This study aims to evaluate the factors influencing EV adoption or rejection in a developing nation by examining the economic and environmental implications of integrating EVs into Tehran's transportation system. Using a system dynamics approach, the research incorporated a range of elements, including private and public transport, fuel consumption, and environmental costs. Based on this model, causal loop and stock-flow diagrams were developed. Model simulation was conducted, and its validity was carefully controlled. Different scenarios were then generated for incorporating EVs into Tehran's transportation system. The simulations demonstrated that integrating EVs into the taxi fleet is economically advantageous as it offsets the annual purchase and charging station expenses. This scenario led to a 0.2 % decrease in urban costs. Conversely, introducing EVs for private transportation resulted in a 1.9 % increase in overall transportation system costs. Therefore, for cities like Tehran, prioritizing EV adoption in the taxi fleet is a more favorable strategy to balance economic and environmental benefits. This model provides valuable insights for developing countries considering EV adoption, highlighting the economic and environmental ramifications across various sectors.