Lessons Learned in Using Mathematical Modeling for Priority Setting in Health.

Health systems and reform Pub Date : 2023-12-31 Epub Date: 2024-09-13 DOI:10.1080/23288604.2024.2357113
David Wilson, Marelize Gorgens
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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for priority setting in health financing and resource allocation, spotlighting the limitations of traditional health financing strategies. This commentary explores the relevance of mathematical modeling in enhancing allocative efficiency within the health sector, especially in the aftermath of the pandemic. We draw from the World Bank's experiences in supporting over 20 countries to employ mathematical optimization models for priority setting, aiming to achieve optimal health outcomes within constrained budgets. The pandemic's impact on economic growth, revenue collection, debt stress, and the overall fiscal space available for health financing has necessitated a paradigm shift toward prioritizing efficiency improvements in health service delivery. We outline lessons learned from such modeling and chart future directions to enhance efficiency gains, including for integrated, patient-centered approaches to health service delivery. We advocate for flexible and effective localized priority-setting, leveraging data-driven insights to navigate the complexities of health financing in a post-COVID era.

利用数学建模确定卫生工作重点的经验教训。
COVID-19 大流行突显了确定卫生筹资和资源分配优先次序的必要性,也凸显了传统卫生筹资战略的局限性。本评论探讨了数学建模在提高卫生部门分配效率方面的相关性,尤其是在大流行病之后。我们借鉴了世界银行在支持 20 多个国家采用数学优化模型确定优先事项方面的经验,目的是在预算有限的情况下实现最佳的卫生成果。疫情对经济增长、税收、债务压力以及可用于卫生筹资的总体财政空间都产生了影响,因此有必要转变模式,优先提高卫生服务的效率。我们概述了从这种模式中吸取的经验教训,并规划了提高效率的未来方向,包括以患者为中心的综合医疗服务提供方法。我们提倡灵活、有效地制定本地化的优先事项,利用数据驱动的洞察力来驾驭后 COVID 时代复杂的卫生筹资问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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