Evaluating NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 performance in complex terrain for forecasting key freezing rain factors

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Wei Zou, Shuanghe Cao, Wei Tan
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Freezing rain poses significant challenges to power systems, particularly in terms of safety and operational efficiency. This study introduces the latest NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, which enhances the spatial resolution compared to conventional CMIP6 models, thereby offering new potentials for high-resolution climate modeling. Using this advanced dataset, we conducted a comparative analysis to assess its performance in simulating key meteorological factors relevant to freezing rain in Guizhou, China—a region known for its complex terrain and susceptibility to winter icing events. Our analysis indicates that NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 more accurately simulates surface air temperature (tas) and relative humidity (hurs) over complex terrains compared to generic CMIP6 models, especially the best multi-model ensemble (BMME). The BMME projections show a notable decrease in freezing rain days in January in Guizhou, from an average of 12 to 4 by the century’s end (2071–2100), alongside a substantial decrease in the affected area. Additionally, the study highlights that the position of the Yunnan-Guizhou quasi-stationary front (YGQSF) remains unchanged under different emission scenarios. Only minor changes in intensity are observed in small areas, with the equivalent potential temperature gradient decreasing from 0.2 K·km⁻¹ to 0.1 K·km⁻¹. Concurrently, tas and tasmin exhibit a uniform warming trend. This study projects a shrinkage of the winter ice-prone zone in Guizhou, associated with escalated emission levels, with the remaining impacted region retreating to the province’s western portion by the end of this century. Overall, our research underscores the importance of high-resolution datasets like NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 for accurate climate projections and informs regional adaptation strategies, as its projection aligns with recent trends of decreased icing events.

Abstract Image

评估 NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 在复杂地形中预报关键冻雨因子的性能
冻雨给电力系统带来了巨大挑战,尤其是在安全和运行效率方面。本研究引入了最新的 NASA Earth Exchange 全球每日降尺度预测数据集 NEX-GDDP-CMIP6,与传统的 CMIP6 模型相比,该数据集提高了空间分辨率,从而为高分辨率气候建模提供了新的潜力。利用这一先进的数据集,我们进行了对比分析,以评估其在模拟与中国贵州冻雨相关的关键气象因素方面的性能--贵州以地形复杂和易发生冬季结冰事件而著称。我们的分析表明,与一般的 CMIP6 模式,尤其是最佳多模式集合(BMME)相比,NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 能更准确地模拟复杂地形上的地表气温(tas)和相对湿度(hurs)。BMME 预测显示,到本世纪末(2071-2100 年),贵州 1 月的冻雨日数将显著减少,从平均 12 天减少到 4 天,同时受影响的地区也将大幅减少。此外,研究还强调,在不同的排放情景下,云贵准静止锋(YGQSF)的位置保持不变。仅在小范围内观测到强度的微小变化,等效潜在温度梯度从 0.2 K-km-¹ 减小到 0.1 K-km-¹。同时,tas 和 tasmin 呈现出一致的变暖趋势。这项研究预测,随着排放水平的上升,贵州冬季易结冰区域将缩小,到本世纪末,剩余的受影响区域将退缩到该省西部。总之,我们的研究强调了像 NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 这样的高分辨率数据集对于准确预测气候的重要性,并为区域适应战略提供了信息,因为其预测与近期结冰事件减少的趋势一致。
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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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