The electoral consequences of the political divide on climate change

Abstract

This paper examines how climate change has become a polarizing and politicized issue in the United States and assesses the relationship between regional exposure to the green economy and voting in US elections over the course of a decade. After measuring the share of employment related to the green economy at county level, I estimate the impact of county‐level exposure to this economy on the share of votes cast for Democrats in elections for the House of Representatives and the Presidency. I find that US counties that have been more exposed to the green economy have increased their share of votes cast for Democrats in Congressional elections since the 2016 elections, based on both county‐level and constructed district‐level data. This is because Democratic politicians are considerably more likely to adopt pro‐green positions, making them an attractive choice for voters seeking representatives who will promote green policies. This paper also finds that a shift toward Democratic candidates has mostly occurred in Republican incumbent districts with a high proportion of green‐intensive employment that did not receive any support for green investment from the government after 2016. The results imply that climate change has become an important determinant of voting decisions and that this change in motivation on the part of voters has come about primarily with the aim of punishing Republican incumbents rather than rewarding Democratic incumbents or challengers.