{"title":"The impact of a missing school graduation cohort on the training market","authors":"Matthias Dorner , Katja Görlitz , Elke J. Jahn","doi":"10.1016/j.econedurev.2024.102580","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study analyzes whether the training market responds to a reduced supply of trainees by decreasing the number of hired trainees and increasing their wages based on administrative data. The empirical identification uses exogenous regional and time variation in the occurrence of a missing school graduation cohort that shifts the supply of potential trainees downwards. The results show that the missing cohort decreases new hires by 10 % and raises wages by 1 %. Further robustness results reveal that the opposite case of excess supply (that is caused by dual cohorts) increases hirings and decreases wages. Our results also document that high and low wage firms respond differently to the supply shocks. While only high wage firms stop hiring when labor supply decreases, it is the low wage firms who hire a larger number of trainees in case of excess supply.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48261,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Education Review","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102580"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272775724000748/pdfft?md5=4956d13ab05ee45c56524bcc80deb20c&pid=1-s2.0-S0272775724000748-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economics of Education Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272775724000748","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This study analyzes whether the training market responds to a reduced supply of trainees by decreasing the number of hired trainees and increasing their wages based on administrative data. The empirical identification uses exogenous regional and time variation in the occurrence of a missing school graduation cohort that shifts the supply of potential trainees downwards. The results show that the missing cohort decreases new hires by 10 % and raises wages by 1 %. Further robustness results reveal that the opposite case of excess supply (that is caused by dual cohorts) increases hirings and decreases wages. Our results also document that high and low wage firms respond differently to the supply shocks. While only high wage firms stop hiring when labor supply decreases, it is the low wage firms who hire a larger number of trainees in case of excess supply.
期刊介绍：
Economics of Education Review publishes research on education policy and finance, human capital production and acquisition, and the returns to human capital. We accept empirical, methodological and theoretical contributions, but the main focus of Economics of Education Review is on applied studies that employ micro data and clear identification strategies. Our goal is to publish innovative, cutting-edge research on the economics of education that is of interest to academics, policymakers and the public. Starting with papers submitted March 1, 2014, the review process for articles submitted to the Economics of Education Review will no longer be double blind. Authors are requested to include a title page with authors'' names and affiliation. Reviewers will continue to be anonymous.
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