Spatiotemporal dynamics and transformation of the Parana State coastline: A 34-year analysis using RS, GIS, and machine learning

Abstract

The coastal zone is a critical and vibrant area within coastal cities. Analyzing the changes in the coastal zone of Parana State helps determine the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving forces of this region, providing guidance for resource protection and utilization. This study employs remote sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS), and Machine Learning techniques, using Landsat data sets with eight distinct scenes from 1990 to 2024, to extract and analyze the coastline. Specifically, methodologies such as Shoreline Extraction, the Coastline Diversity Index (CDI), and the Coastline Utilization Index (CUI) were applied to assess the coastline's characteristics. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the coastline development in Parana are meticulously examined to ensure accuracy. The findings reveal that: 1) Over the past 34 years, the coastline of Parana State has shown a consistent increasing trend. Natural coastlines have been declining by 45% annually, while artificial coastlines have been increasing by approximately 55% annually. 2) The nature of the shoreline is transitioning from natural to sea-reclamation, engineering-enhanced, and degraded forest. 3) The coastline changes have occurred in three phases: The Built-up Land phase, the Port Petrochemical phase, and the Reducing Coastal Erosion phase. Significant shoreline extension is observed near both biological and ecological coasts. 4) The primary factors influencing the coastline alterations in Parana State include natural forces, human activities, and regional policies. These insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Parana coastline can inform better coastal management and conservation strategies.