Rainwater shocks and economic growth: The role of the water cycle partition

IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS
François Bareille , Raja Chakir , Charles Regnacq
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper improves our understanding of how rainwater impacts economic growth by investigating the effects of overlooked properties of the water cycle. First, we consider the natural separation of rainwater into flows of blue water (i.e., the water that runs off towards rivers) and green water (i.e., that remaining in the soil). Second, we account for the presence of surface and groundwater stocks. These considerations allow us to comprehensively address the whole partition of rainwater, which, upon reaching the ground, splits into distinct water resources that determine water availability inland. Our analyses on a global panel coupling sub-national economic and hydrological data show that rainwater does increase growth, but do so differently depending on its partition. Specifically, blue water leads to more economic growth than green water at the margin, but, because two thirds of terrestrial water is green, the latter contributes more to growth in total. By missing this crucial partition, we find that commonly used rainwater measurements overstate rainwater’s contribution to growth (by about two). Our analyses further indicate that, although groundwater reserves always mitigate the impacts of rainwater reduction on growth, surface water reserves sometimes amplify regional dependence to rainwater (depending on sector, income and reserve types).

雨水冲击与经济增长:水循环分区的作用
本文通过研究被忽视的水循环特性的影响,加深了我们对雨水如何影响经济增长的理解。首先,我们考虑了雨水自然分离为蓝水(即流向河流的水)和绿水(即留在土壤中的水)的情况。其次,我们考虑了地表水和地下水存量的存在。这些考虑因素使我们能够全面解决雨水的整体分区问题,雨水到达地面后会分成不同的水资源,这些水资源决定了内陆地区的供水量。我们对国家以下各级经济和水文数据进行的全球面板耦合分析表明,雨水确实能促进经济增长,但其作用因雨水分区的不同而不同。具体来说,蓝水比绿水在边际上带来更多的经济增长,但由于三分之二的陆地水是绿水,后者对总增长的贡献更大。由于忽略了这一关键的分区,我们发现常用的雨水测量方法高估了雨水对经济增长的贡献(大约高出两倍)。我们的分析进一步表明,虽然地下水储备总是能减轻雨水减少对增长的影响,但地表水储备有时会扩大地区对雨水的依赖(取决于行业、收入和储备类型)。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
4.30%
发文量
91
期刊介绍: The Journal of Environmental Economics and Management publishes theoretical and empirical papers devoted to specific natural resources and environmental issues. For consideration, papers should (1) contain a substantial element embodying the linkage between economic systems and environmental and natural resources systems or (2) be of substantial importance in understanding the management and/or social control of the economy in its relations with the natural environment. Although the general orientation of the journal is toward economics, interdisciplinary papers by researchers in other fields of interest to resource and environmental economists will be welcomed.
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