Tank pool fire domino effect prevention by inherently safer layout planning: A techno-economic analytical index

Abstract

Tank pool fire domino effects, represented by their capacities of accident consequence escalation and extensive damages, present substantial safety challenges within chemical storage systems. In this work, the inherent safety concept is introduced to proactively address these challenges while ensuring cost-effectiveness. Accordingly, a dedicated novel metric called Inherent Safety & Economic Risk Index (IS&ERI) is proposed to make safety and cost trade-offs for indicating the risk levels of various tank farm layout options. To develop the IS&ERI, the Dow's loss estimate procedure is adapted for representing the economic implications, and the Bayesian Networks are employed for indicating the failure probabilities of target units considering the synergistic effects of multiple pool fires. Two improved graph theory metrics are presented to determine the root nodes of the Bayesian Networks. For demonstrating the proposed IS&ERI, a case study is conducted and the results show that the IS&ERI of 4 tank farm layout options are 0.2991, 0.3120, 0.3525, and 0.2285, implying that Option 4 is the best layout with the lowest potential loss in case of the pool fire domino effects. As the key research contribution, the IS&ERI is presented and it can be used as a useful tool to compare and select the best tank farm layout option to eliminate or significantly reduce the knock-on effects of tank pool fires at their sources.