Lost in Transition: A Cohort Analysis of Catch‐Up in Homeownership in Australia*

Abstract

We study how housing market conditions shape the housing careers of Australians. Utilising data from the Australian Census spanning from 1991 to 2021, we observe significant differences in ownership rates at age 30 across birth cohorts. Moreover, these differences widen significantly as housing affordability falls. Using synthetic cohort techniques, we evaluate the persistence of these differences. Our results reveal that while the homeownership rates of younger cohorts ‘catch up’ somewhat with those of their older counterparts, a substantial gap remains at age 50. Early access to homeownership is also linked to the ownership of larger homes by middle age. Our study underscores the long‐term consequences of housing market conditions on homeownership trajectories.