{"title":"A precise and efficient exceedance-set algorithm for detecting environmental extremes","authors":"Thomas Suesse, Alexander Brenning","doi":"10.1007/s00180-024-01540-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Inference for predicted exceedance sets is important for various environmental issues such as detecting environmental anomalies and emergencies with high confidence. A critical part is to construct inner and outer predicted exceedance sets using an algorithm that samples from the predictive distribution. The simple currently used sampling procedure can lead to misleading conclusions for some locations due to relatively large standard errors when proportions are estimated from independent observations. Instead we propose an algorithm that calculates probabilities numerically using the Genz–Bretz algorithm, which is based on quasi-random numbers leading to more accurate inner and outer sets, as illustrated on rainfall data in the state of Paraná, Brazil.</p>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-024-01540-y","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Inference for predicted exceedance sets is important for various environmental issues such as detecting environmental anomalies and emergencies with high confidence. A critical part is to construct inner and outer predicted exceedance sets using an algorithm that samples from the predictive distribution. The simple currently used sampling procedure can lead to misleading conclusions for some locations due to relatively large standard errors when proportions are estimated from independent observations. Instead we propose an algorithm that calculates probabilities numerically using the Genz–Bretz algorithm, which is based on quasi-random numbers leading to more accurate inner and outer sets, as illustrated on rainfall data in the state of Paraná, Brazil.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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