When the Rain Stops Falling. Effects of Droughts on the Tunisian Labour Market

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Federica Alfani, Giacomo Pallante, Alessandro Palma, Abdelkader Talhaoui
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We investigate the effects of severe drought shocks in Tunisia’s agricultural sector during the period 2000-2019. Using labour force surveys aligned with granular weather data, we calculate Standardized Potential Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to detect moderate-to-severe drought shocks occurred at the governorate level and frame the analysis in a staggered difference-in-differences setting with repeated negative events. We find that shocked areas experience a maximum of 7.4 to 10.6 percentage point drop in agricultural employment compared to the untreated or not-yet-treated governorates. We observe a contemporaneous opposite dynamic in the employment rate of low-skill and less climate-sensitive sectors, as well as a modest and transient increase in unemployment. The effects are largely heterogeneous across workers' groups, with women, young individuals and low-educated workers paying the highest toll. Urban non-agricultural workers are temporarily crowded out from the labour market due to the increase in the informal labour supply.
雨停之时:干旱对突尼斯劳动力市场的影响干旱对突尼斯劳动力市场的影响
我们调查了 2000-2019 年期间严重干旱冲击对突尼斯农业部门的影响。我们利用劳动力调查和粒度气象数据,计算标准化潜在蒸散指数(SPEI),以检测省一级发生的中度至严重干旱冲击,并在重复负面事件的交错差分设置中进行分析。我们发现,与未受影响或尚未受影响的省份相比,受影响地区的农业就业率最高下降了 7.4 至 10.6 个百分点。我们观察到,低技能和气候敏感性较低行业的就业率出现了同期相反的动态变化,失业率也出现了短暂的小幅上升。对不同工人群体的影响大不相同,妇女、年轻人和低学历工人受到的影响最大。由于非正规劳动力供应增加,城市非农业工人暂时被挤出劳动力市场。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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