Analysis of sea surface temperature pattern, variability and their teleconnection with rainfall dynamics over the Gulf of Guinea

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Oye Ideki, Anthony Rocco Lupo
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Spatial pattern and variability of sea surface temperature SST and their teleconnections with rainfall dynamics in the Gulf of Guinea (GOG) were examined in this study. SST and rainfall data of 50 years (1970–2022) were obtained from ERA5 and NOAA CPC at 0.25° x × 0.25° and 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution from longitudes 10°W and 8°W, 6oW, 4oW, and 2oW and latitudes 15°N, 5oN, 3oN, 15oS, 5oS, and 3oS, distributed along the Gulf of Guinea (GOG) respectively. Analysis was further carried out on twelve rainfall gridded stations distributed along the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) for the characterization of the Rainfall-SST teleconnection across the region while the relationship between the rainfall-SST anomalies, seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal scales was carried out using correlation analyses and composites. Interpolation of the meteorological variables was carried out using Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) from the ArcGIS Spatial Analyst Tool, Ferret, and CDO which were further employed to generate the seasonal and decadal rainfall and SST maps and statistical analysis of the study area. The result of the decadal and seasonal analysis of SST variability from 1970–1980,1980–1990, 1990–2000,2000–2010,2010–2020 and 2022 indicate that SST was highest from 2010 to 2020 at 28.91 °C and fluctuated between (28.49 °C) in the 1970–1980 and (28.08 °C) for the 1980–1990 decade While the seasonal pattern of SST showed marked variability with March–April and May(MAM) recording 29.34 °C with the lowest being in June-July–August(JJA) at 28.7 °C. In terms of decadal analysis of rainfall, the period 2010–2020 recorded the highest amount of rainfall along the coast (3,145.5 mm-3,928.3 mm while 1970–1980 recorded the lowest amount of rainfall (2,650–3.310 mm. To investigate the teleconnection between of SST and rainfall dynamics, statistical analysis was used where the SST values were plotted against seasonal rainfall in 11 stations namely Abidjan, Banjul, Accra, Guinea, Conakry, Cotonou, Dakar Doula, Freetown, Lagos, Lome, and Monrovia. The outcome of the statistical analysis and Standardized Anomaly Index used indicate that Banjul, Cotonou, Dakar, and Doula exhibited statistically insignificant correlation at 0.05 confidence level while Abidjan, Accra, Lagos, Lome, Freetown, and Monrovia showed positive and statistically significant correlation. The spatial pattern of seasonal rainfall climatology categorized into DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON reveals that JJA and SON produced 80% of rainfall in the Coastal GOG followed by MAM. The study affirmed that warm and cold tongues exist in the GOG alongside positive teleconnection and that the spatial variability of SST observed in this study corresponds positively with the decadal and seasonal variability of rainfall.

Abstract Image

分析几内亚湾海面温度模式、变化及其与降雨动态的远程联系
本研究考察了几内亚湾(GOG)海面温度 SST 的空间模式和变率及其与降雨动态的远缘关系。从ERA5 和 NOAA CPC 获取了 50 年(1970-2022 年)的 SST 和降雨量数据,空间分辨率分别为 0.25° x × 0.25° 和 0.5° × 0.5°,沿几内亚湾(GOG)分布,经度分别为 10°W、8°W、6oW、4oW 和 2oW,纬度分别为 15°N、5oN、3oN、15oS、5oS 和 3oS。此外,还对几内亚湾沿岸的 12 个降雨网格站进行了分析,以确定该地区降雨-海 洋温度远距离联系的特征,并利用相关分析和复合分析,确定降雨-海洋温度异常在季 节、年际和十年尺度上的关系。利用 ArcGIS 空间分析工具、Ferret 和 CDO 中的反距离加权(IDW)对气象变量进行了插值,进一步生成了研究区域的季节和十年降雨量及 SST 地图并进行了统计分析。对 1970-1980 年、1980-1990 年、1990-2000 年、2000-2010 年、2010-2020 年和 2022 年的海温变化进行十年和季节分析的结果表明,2010 至 2020 年的海温最高,为 28.91 °C,1970-1980 年的海温在(28.49 °C)和 1980-1990 年的海温(28.08 °C)之间波动。从降雨量的十年分析来看,2010-2020 年沿岸降雨量最高(3 145.5 毫米-3 928.3 毫米),而 1970-1980 年降雨量最低(2 650-3 310 毫米)。为了研究 SST 与降雨动态之间的相互联系,使用了统计分析方法,将 11 个站点(阿比让、班珠尔、阿克拉、几内亚、科纳克里、科托努、达喀尔杜拉、弗里敦、拉各斯、洛美和蒙罗维亚)的 SST 值与季节性降雨量进行对比。统计分析结果和使用的标准化异常指数表明,在 0.05 的置信水平下,班珠尔、科托努、达喀尔和杜拉显示出统计上不显著的相关性,而阿比让、阿克拉、拉各斯、洛美、弗里敦和蒙罗维亚则显示出统计上显著的正相关性。按 DJF、MAM、JJA 和 SON 分类的季节性降雨气候学空间模式显示,JJA 和 SON 产生了沿海地区降雨量的 80%,其次是 MAM。该研究证实,全球大气环流中存在冷热舌,同时还存在正的远距离联系,而且该研究观测到的海温空间变率与降雨的十年变率和季节变率呈正相关。
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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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