Sensitivity analysis of streamflow parameters with SWAT calibrated by NCEP CFSR and future runoff assessment with developed Monte Carlo model

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Seyedeh Hadis Moghadam, Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh, Vijay P. Singh
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The present study analyzed sensitivity of flow parameters using SWAT and effect of climate change on surface water resources, considering uncertainty with Monte Carlo. For this purpose, output of nine-model related to fifth-climate change-report during baseline period 1971–2000 was weighted. Using Monte Carlo, 100 samples of probabilistic distribution of basin temperature and rainfall were generated. LARS-WG model was used for downscaling, then temperature and precipitation were calculated under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for future periods 2040–2069 and 2070–2099. SWAT was calibrated using observational-data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (NCEP CFSR) global climate datasets and sensitivity of parameters affecting flow was analyzed. Results showed that observed-data had better performance than NCEP CFSR. Finally, future runoff was calculated under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for 2040–2069 and 2070–2099. Results showed that average annual runoff decreased by 84, 80, 82 and 80%, for 2040–2069 (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and for 2070–2099 (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) relative to baseline, respectively.

Abstract Image

利用经 NCEP CFSR 校准的 SWAT 系统和利用开发的 Monte Carlo 模型进行的未来径流评估,对溪流参数进行敏感性分析
本研究利用 SWAT 分析了流量参数的敏感性以及气候变化对地表水资源的影响,并考虑了蒙特卡洛的不确定性。为此,对 1971-2000 年基线期间与第五次气候变化报告相关的 9 个模型的输出结果进行了加权。利用蒙特卡洛法生成了 100 个流域温度和降雨量概率分布样本。使用 LARS-WG 模型进行降尺度处理,然后计算了未来 2040-2069 年和 2070-2099 年 RCP2.6 和 RCP8.5 条件下的气温和降水量。利用观测数据和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)的气候预测系统再分析(CFSR)全球气候数据集对 SWAT 进行了校准,并分析了影响流量的参数的敏感性。结果表明,观测数据的性能优于 NCEP CFSR。最后,计算了 2040-2069 年和 2070-2099 年 RCP2.6 和 RCP8.5 条件下的未来径流量。结果表明,2040-2069 年(RCP2.6 和 RCP8.5)和 2070-2099 年(RCP2.6 和 RCP8.5)的年均径流量与基线相比分别减少了 84%、80%、82% 和 80%。
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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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