Convection in the active layer speeds up permafrost thaw in coarse-grained soils

Abstract

Permafrost thaw is a major concern raised by the ongoing climate change. An understudied phenomenon possibly affecting the pace of permafrost thaw is the onset of convective motions within the active layer caused by the density anomaly of water. Here we explore the effects of groundwater convection on permafrost thawing using a model that accounts for ice-water phase transitions, coupled with the dynamics of the temperature field transported by the Darcy's flow across a porous matrix. Numerical simulations of this model show that ice thawing in the presence of convection is much faster than in the diffusive case and deepens at a constant velocity proportional to the soil permeability. A scaling argument is able to predict correctly the asymptotic velocity. Since in the convective regime the heat transport is mediated by the coherent motion of thermal plumes across the thawed layer, we find that the depth of the thawing interface becomes highly heterogeneous.