Correlates of timing and intensity of reproductive transition among Ethiopian youths: A multistate multilevel analysis

Abstract

Delaying the transition to marriage and parenthood among youths has been a policy priority in many countries. Reproductive transitions in the life course of individuals still attract the attention of social and health researchers and practitioners. The study analyzed the timing and intensity of reproductive transitions of three synthetic birth cohorts of youths and its correlates in Ethiopia using data extracted from Ethiopian Demographic Health Surveys. A multistate approach suits best to investigate transitions that occur across a series of states through time. A flexible parametric survival model was fit to identify potential correlates of the timing and intensities of reproductive transitions. Data management and analysis were done using STATA 14. Reproductive transitions among youths occur starting at age 18 with stronger transition intensities. Even though the transition showed a changing pattern, family formation took the major share of the transition. Despite shaping the timing of entry to union of youths, education did not significantly reduce the risk of the debut to sex. The results demonstrate that early premarital sexual initiation is the main precursor to social ills such as early and single parenthood and their consequences among Ethiopian youths. Due to the excessive risk that female youths have been exposed to, a persistent gender gap in reproductive transition has also been observed. An effort must be made to close the gender gap in reproductive transitions and lessen the negative effects of early premarital sexual initiation, notably the increased risks young females face.