Predicting Extension of Time and Increasing Contract Price in Road Infrastructure Projects Using a Sugeno Fuzzy Logic Model

Abstract

Road infrastructure plays a crucial role in the development of countries, significantly influencing economic growth, social progress, and environmental sustainability. Major infrastructure projects are frequently challenged by substantial risks and uncertainties, leading to delays, budget overruns, and compromised quality. These issues can undermine the economic viability and efficiency of projects, making effective risk management essential for minimizing negative impacts and ensuring project success. For these reasons, a study was conducted using a Sugeno fuzzy logic system applied to completed projects. The resulting model is based on 10 project characteristics and provides highly accurate predictions for Extension of Time (EoT) and Increasing Contract Price (ICP). By utilizing this model, project management can be significantly improved through more accurate forecasting of potential delays and cost overruns. The high precision of the Sugeno fuzzy logic system enables better risk assessment and proactive decision-making, allowing project managers to implement targeted strategies to mitigate risks and optimize project outcomes.