Big news: Climate-disaster expectations and the business cycle

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106719

Alexander M. Dietrich , Gernot J. Müller , Raphael S. Schoenle

引用次数: 0

Abstract

News—anticipated changes of an economy’s fundamentals—drive the business cycle. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly, but its full effect will take time to materialize. To better understand the transmission of news, this paper focuses on climate-change expectations. First, we measure the expected economic impact of climate change in a representative survey of U.S. consumers. We find, in particular, that costly natural disasters are salient of climate change. Second, we calibrate a New Keynesian model with rare disasters to the survey results and find that shifts in climate-change expectations operate like adverse demand shocks.

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大新闻：气候灾害预期与商业周期

新闻--经济基本面的预期变化--驱动着商业周期。气候变化是个大新闻：它将对经济产生深远影响，但其全部效应需要时间才能实现。为了更好地理解新闻的传播，本文重点关注气候变化预期。首先，我们通过对美国消费者的代表性调查来衡量气候变化对经济的预期影响。我们特别发现，代价高昂的自然灾害是气候变化的显著特征。其次，我们根据调查结果校准了一个具有罕见灾害的新凯恩斯主义模型，发现气候变化预期的变化就像不利需求冲击一样。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

9.10%

发文量

392

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization is devoted to theoretical and empirical research concerning economic decision, organization and behavior and to economic change in all its aspects. Its specific purposes are to foster an improved understanding of how human cognitive, computational and informational characteristics influence the working of economic organizations and market economies and how an economy structural features lead to various types of micro and macro behavior, to changing patterns of development and to institutional evolution. Research with these purposes that explore the interrelations of economics with other disciplines such as biology, psychology, law, anthropology, sociology and mathematics is particularly welcome.