Does air pollution cause more car accidents? Evidence from auto insurance claims

IF 5.2 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
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Abstract

Using a proprietary data set of auto insurance claims from May 2014 to December 2016, this paper examines the influence of air pollution on the number and severity of traffic accidents in China. Combining an instrumental variable strategy with high-dimensional fixed effects, we find that air pollution significantly increases the occurrence of traffic accidents, with each 1 μg/m3 increase in the particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) resulting in a 0.12 % increase in traffic accident probability and a 0.40 % increase in traffic accident number within one day. A different pattern is revealed in our analysis of accident severity, evidenced by a decrease of 1.20 % in the average claim ratio compared to its mean value and a reduction of 26 yuan in the average claim amount made with an increase of 1 μg/m3 in PM2.5. Combining the effect on the number and severity of traffic accidents, for each 1 μg/m3 increase in daily PM2.5, the district daily claim amount decreases by approximately 34 yuan. Further analysis indicates that this may be related to cautious driving behavior resulting from the driver's increased risk aversion. By exercising caution and care on the road, drivers can reduce the negative influence of air pollution on road safety and avoid non-subjective behavioral biases.

空气污染会导致更多车祸吗?来自汽车保险理赔的证据
本文利用 2014 年 5 月至 2016 年 12 月的车险理赔专有数据集,研究了空气污染对中国交通事故数量和严重程度的影响。结合工具变量策略和高维固定效应,我们发现空气污染会显著增加交通事故的发生,颗粒物 2.5(PM2.5)每增加 1 μg/m3 会导致一天内交通事故概率增加 0.12%,交通事故数量增加 0.40%。我们对事故严重性的分析显示了不同的模式,即 PM2.5 每增加 1 μg/m3 ,平均索赔率与平均值相比下降 1.20 %,平均索赔金额减少 26 元。结合对交通事故数量和严重程度的影响,PM2.5日均浓度每增加1微克/立方米,该区日均索赔额减少约34元。进一步分析表明,这可能与驾驶员风险规避意识增强导致的谨慎驾驶行为有关。驾驶员在道路上谨慎小心,可以减少空气污染对道路安全的负面影响,避免非主观行为偏差。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
中国经济评论
中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
10.60
自引率
4.40%
发文量
380
期刊介绍: The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.
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