Venture Capitalists’ Decision-Making in Hot and Cold Markets: The Effect of Signals and Cheap Talk

Abstract

This study examines the influence of market conditions—hot versus cold—on the decision-making processes of venture capitalists (VCs). Prior research suggests that VCs prefer costly signals over cheap talk when assessing new ventures under static conditions. However, based on a cognitive perspective, we argue that the dynamic nature of market conditions alters VCs’ information processing. In cold markets, VCs prioritize signals, whereas, in hot markets, they emphasize less costly cues that resonate with prevailing optimism, often at the expense of signals. Supported by a conjoint experiment with 76 VCs, our results clarify the pivotal role of market conditions on the effectiveness of entrepreneurs’ signaling strategies.