Expectations, sentiments and capital flows to emerging market economies

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI:10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101172

Joscha Beckmann , Tjeerd M. Boonman , Sven Schreiber

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper provides a novel look at capital flow determinants by assessing the role of expectations and media sentiments. Analyzing eight emerging market economies, we assess the effects of macroeconomic expectations and disagreement among professionals and various media-based sentiment indicators. Our results show that survey and sentiment indicators which are available in real time contain useful information about capital flow dynamics which go beyond the effects of conventional push and pull factors for all countries we analyze. News sentiment related to the exchange rate have the strongest effects on capital flows. Finally, we identify substantial heterogeneity across countries.

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对新兴市场经济体的预期、情绪和资本流动

本文通过评估预期和媒体情绪的作用，对资本流动的决定因素进行了新颖的探讨。通过分析八个新兴市场经济体，我们评估了宏观经济预期的影响、专业人士之间的分歧以及各种基于媒体的情绪指标。我们的研究结果表明，在我们分析的所有国家中，可实时获得的调查和情绪指标都包含有关资本流动动态的有用信息，这些信息超越了传统的推拉因素的影响。与汇率相关的新闻情绪对资本流动的影响最大。最后，我们发现了各国之间的巨大差异。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Emerging Markets Review Multiple-

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

4.20%

发文量

审稿时长

100 days

期刊介绍： The intent of the editors is to consolidate Emerging Markets Review as the premier vehicle for publishing high impact empirical and theoretical studies in emerging markets finance. Preference will be given to comparative studies that take global and regional perspectives, detailed single country studies that address critical policy issues and have significant global and regional implications, and papers that address the interactions of national and international financial architecture. We especially welcome papers that take institutional as well as financial perspectives.