C. Lennart Baumgärtner , Rupert Way , Matthew C. Ives , J. Doyne Farmer
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Technology modeling is a vital part of developing and understanding energy system scenarios and policy, but it is challenging due to data limitations, deep uncertainty, and the complex social and technological dynamics involved in the evolution of energy systems. These difficulties are often compounded by unsound technology forecasting practice, including overfitting, data selection bias, and ad hoc assumptions, leading to unreliable conclusions. We flag several cases where this has been problematic and analyze in detail a recent model for predicting the pace of solar photovoltaic and wind energy deployment. We discuss general takeaways and provide suggestions for how statistical testing should be conducted to avoid such problems in the future and to quantify the reliability of forecasts.
期刊介绍：
Joule is a sister journal to Cell that focuses on research, analysis, and ideas related to sustainable energy. It aims to address the global challenge of the need for more sustainable energy solutions. Joule is a forward-looking journal that bridges disciplines and scales of energy research. It connects researchers and analysts working on scientific, technical, economic, policy, and social challenges related to sustainable energy. The journal covers a wide range of energy research, from fundamental laboratory studies on energy conversion and storage to global-level analysis. Joule aims to highlight and amplify the implications, challenges, and opportunities of novel energy research for different groups in the field.
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