Reference-Dependent Risk-Taking in the NBA

IF 1.8 3区 心理学 Q3 PSYCHOLOGY, APPLIED
Daniel Mochon
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Abstract

This paper examines whether risk preferences in the NBA are reference-dependent and attempts to identify the reference point. Using data from 10 NBA seasons (12,890 games), I find that teams are more likely to attempt a riskier three-point shot (vs. a less risky two-point shot) when below the reference point than above it, consistent with Prospect Theory. The results further show that teams are not influenced by a single fixed reference point, but instead, their choices depend on the score difference, most recent score change, and pregame expectations. Additionally, the weight given to the reference point changes over the course of the game. Teams show a breakeven effect, such that they are more likely to attempt a three-point shot when doing so can tie the game. They also show behavior consistent with mental accounting, as the reference point carries more weight at the end of a quarter than at the beginning. These results provide further real-world evidence for reference-dependent risk preferences while highlighting the challenge of applying reference-dependent models to real-world settings.

Abstract Image

NBA 中依赖参照物的冒险行为
本文研究了 NBA 的风险偏好是否取决于参考点,并试图确定参考点。利用 10 个 NBA 赛季(12,890 场比赛)的数据,我发现球队在低于参考点时比高于参考点时更有可能尝试风险较高的三分球(相对于风险较低的两分球),这与前景理论是一致的。结果进一步表明,球队并不受单一固定参考点的影响,相反,他们的选择取决于比分差距、最近的比分变化和赛前预期。此外,参考点的权重在比赛过程中也会发生变化。球队表现出一种收支平衡效应,即如果投三分球可以扳平比分,那么他们就更有可能尝试投三分球。他们还表现出与心理核算一致的行为,因为参考点在一节结束时比在开始时具有更大的权重。这些结果为依赖参考点的风险偏好提供了进一步的现实证据,同时也凸显了将依赖参考点的模型应用于现实环境所面临的挑战。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
5.00%
发文量
40
期刊介绍: The Journal of Behavioral Decision Making is a multidisciplinary journal with a broad base of content and style. It publishes original empirical reports, critical review papers, theoretical analyses and methodological contributions. The Journal also features book, software and decision aiding technique reviews, abstracts of important articles published elsewhere and teaching suggestions. The objective of the Journal is to present and stimulate behavioral research on decision making and to provide a forum for the evaluation of complementary, contrasting and conflicting perspectives. These perspectives include psychology, management science, sociology, political science and economics. Studies of behavioral decision making in naturalistic and applied settings are encouraged.
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