The application of direct ridership models in the evaluation of the expansion of the Porto Light Rail Transit

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION
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Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to show how a direct demand ride model coupled with a transfer model was able to support the choice of alternative routes for the expansion of the light rail system serving the Porto Metropolitan Area. After an overview of the literature on direct ridership models, emphasizing some key issues such as the need for a systematic assessment of their forecasting performance, the issues related to the definition of the pedestrian catchment area and the limitations of the simultaneous consideration of demand and supply effects, the paper moves into the case study, providing some background information on current occupation densities, land uses and mobility patterns, as well as on the performance of the existing LRT in the Metropolitan Area of Porto. The development of the direct ridership model, measuring the potential attractiveness of each station, and the transfer model, measuring the number of transfers at each station, are presented in detail. A justification is provided why, in this case, a two-step modelling approach was necessary. Further details about the statistical tests for model validation are also provided. After a brief characterization of the alternative routes under analysis for the expansion of the network, the modelling results are presented enabling a comparative assessment of the potential performance of each proposed route. The paper ends with a discussion of the relevance of this modelling results vis a vis the actual final decisions on investment priorities taken jointly by the Metropolitan Council and the Metro Company.

直接乘客模型在波尔图轻轨扩建评估中的应用
本文的主要目的是说明直接乘客需求模型如何与换乘模型相结合,为波尔图都会区轻轨系统扩建的替代路线选择提供支持。本文概述了有关直达乘客模型的文献,强调了一些关键问题,如对其预测性能进行系统评估的必要性、与行人集聚区定义相关的问题以及同时考虑需求和供给效应的局限性,然后进入案例研究,提供了一些有关当前职业密度、土地使用和流动模式的背景信息,以及波尔图大都会区现有轻轨的性能。详细介绍了直接乘客模型和换乘模型的开发情况,直接乘客模型用于衡量每个车站的潜在吸引力,换乘模型用于衡量每个车站的换乘次数。此外,还说明了为什么在这种情况下需要采用两步建模法。此外,还提供了模型验证统计测试的更多细节。在简要介绍了为扩建铁路网而分析的备选线路的特点之后,介绍了建模结果,以便对每条拟议线路的潜在性能进行比较评估。本文最后讨论了建模结果与大都会委员会和地铁公司共同做出的投资优先次序实际最终决定的相关性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
12.00%
发文量
222
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