Association of ambient temperature with intentional self-harm and suicide death in Seoul: a case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model

Abstract

Previous epidemiological studies have reported a short-term association between ambient temperature and suicide risk. To gain a clearer understanding of this association, it is essential to differentiate the risk factors for intentional self-harm (ISH) from those specifically associated with suicide deaths. Therefore, this study aims to examine whether the association between daily temperature and ISH or suicide deaths differs by age and sex. Between 2014 and 2019, cases of emergency room visits related to ISH and suicide deaths in Seoul were identified. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to adjust for temporal trends and seasonal variation. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to analyze the nonlinear and time-delayed effect of ambient temperature on ISH and suicide deaths. Positive associations were observed between temperature and both ISH and suicide deaths. For ISH, the relative risk (RR) was high at 1.17 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.34) for a temperature of 25.7 °C compared with 14.8 °C. The RR for suicide death was higher than those for ISH, at 1.43 (95% CI: 1.03, 2.00) for a temperature of 33.7 °C. These associations varied by age and sex, with males and females aged 35–64 years showing increased susceptibility to suicide deaths. This study provides detailed evidence that unusually high temperatures, both anomalous and out of season, may trigger suicidal behaviors, including both ISH and suicide deaths.