Geographical Isolation as a Driver of Political Violence in African Cities

Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Ronaldo Menezes
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Abstract

Violence is commonly linked with large urban areas, and as a social phenomenon, it is presumed to scale super-linearly with population size. This study explores the hypothesis that smaller, isolated cities in Africa may experience a heightened intensity of violence against civilians. It aims to investigate the correlation between the risk of experiencing violence with a city's size and its geographical isolation. Over a 20-year period, the incidence of civilian casualties has been analysed to assess lethality in relation to varying degrees of isolation and city sizes. African cities are categorised by isolation (number of highway connections) and centrality (the estimated frequency of journeys). Findings suggest that violence against civilians exhibits a sub-linear pattern, with larger cities witnessing fewer casualties per 100,000 inhabitants. Remarkably, individuals in isolated cities face a quadrupled risk of a casualty compared to those in more connected cities.
地理隔离是非洲城市政治暴力的驱动因素
暴力通常与大城市地区联系在一起,作为一种社会现象,它被认为与人口规模呈超线性关系。本研究探讨的假设是,非洲较小的、孤立的城市可能会经历更严重的针对平民的暴力。研究的目的是调查遭受暴力的风险与城市规模及其地理隔离程度之间的相关性。对 20 年间平民伤亡事件进行了分析,以评估致命性与不同程度的隔离和城市规模之间的关系。非洲城市按照隔离度(高速公路连接点数量)和中心性(估计出行频率)进行分类。研究结果表明,针对平民的暴力行为呈现出亚线性模式,大城市每 10 万居民中的伤亡人数较少。值得注意的是,与交通较为发达的城市相比,偏远城市的居民面临的伤亡风险要高出四倍。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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