{"title":"Alan Author strikes again: more on confirming conjunctions of disconfirmed hypotheses","authors":"Jakob Koscholke","doi":"10.1093/analys/anad103","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n The so-called Alan Author Effect is a surprising phenomenon in Bayesian Confirmation Theory. It occurs when a piece of evidence e confirms the conjunction of two hypotheses h1∧h2 but at the same time disconfirms each hypothesis h1 and h2 individually. In this paper, I present a new and prima facie stronger version of this effect where additionally, the evidence e confirms the conjunction of the negated hypotheses ¬h1∧¬h2. I say ‘prima facie’ because it can be shown that this seemingly stronger effect and the original effect are actually coextensional. I use this insight to formulate a new sufficient (and also necessary) condition for the two equivalent effects. I also examine how likely the two effects are to occur with the help of Monte Carlo simulation methods.","PeriodicalId":47773,"journal":{"name":"ANALYSIS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ANALYSIS","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/analys/anad103","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"0","JCRName":"PHILOSOPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The so-called Alan Author Effect is a surprising phenomenon in Bayesian Confirmation Theory. It occurs when a piece of evidence e confirms the conjunction of two hypotheses h1∧h2 but at the same time disconfirms each hypothesis h1 and h2 individually. In this paper, I present a new and prima facie stronger version of this effect where additionally, the evidence e confirms the conjunction of the negated hypotheses ¬h1∧¬h2. I say ‘prima facie’ because it can be shown that this seemingly stronger effect and the original effect are actually coextensional. I use this insight to formulate a new sufficient (and also necessary) condition for the two equivalent effects. I also examine how likely the two effects are to occur with the help of Monte Carlo simulation methods.
期刊介绍:
Analysis is the most established and esteemed forum in which to publish short discussions of topics in philosophy. Articles published in Analysis lend themselves to the presentation of cogent but brief arguments for substantive conclusions, and often give rise to discussions which continue over several interchanges. A wide range of topics are covered including: philosophical logic and philosophy of language, metaphysics, epistemology, philosophy of mind, and moral philosophy.