Alan Author strikes again: more on confirming conjunctions of disconfirmed hypotheses

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI:10.1093/analys/anad103

Jakob Koscholke

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The so-called Alan Author Effect is a surprising phenomenon in Bayesian Confirmation Theory. It occurs when a piece of evidence e confirms the conjunction of two hypotheses h1∧h2 but at the same time disconfirms each hypothesis h1 and h2 individually. In this paper, I present a new and prima facie stronger version of this effect where additionally, the evidence e confirms the conjunction of the negated hypotheses ¬h1∧¬h2. I say ‘prima facie’ because it can be shown that this seemingly stronger effect and the original effect are actually coextensional. I use this insight to formulate a new sufficient (and also necessary) condition for the two equivalent effects. I also examine how likely the two effects are to occur with the help of Monte Carlo simulation methods.

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艾伦-作者再次出击：更多关于证实不被证实的假设的联想

所谓艾伦-作者效应（Alan Author Effect）是贝叶斯证实理论中的一个令人惊讶的现象。当一个证据 e 证实了两个假设 h1∧h2 的结合，但同时又单独否定了每个假设 h1 和 h2 时，就会出现这种现象。在本文中，我提出了这种效应的一个新的、表面上更强的版本，即证据e另外证实了被否定的假设¬h1∧¬h2的连合。我之所以说 "表面上"，是因为我们可以证明，这种看似更强的效果和原来的效果实际上是共生的。我利用这一洞察力为这两种等效效应提出了一个新的充分条件（也是必要条件）。我还借助蒙特卡洛模拟方法研究了这两种效应发生的可能性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.