Estimated number of lives directly saved by COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023: a retrospective surveillance study.
Margaux M I Meslé, Jeremy Brown, Piers Mook, Mark A Katz, José Hagan, Roberta Pastore, Bernhard Benka, Monika Redlberger-Fritz, Nathalie Bossuyt, Veerle Stouten, Catharina Vernemmen, Elisabet Constantinou, Marek Maly, Jan Kynčl, Ondrej Sanca, Tyra Grove Krause, Lasse Skafte Vestergaard, Tuija Leino, Eero Poukka, Kassiani Gkolfinopoulou, Kassiani Mellou, Maria Tsintziloni, Zsuzsanna Molnár, Gudrun Aspelund, Marianna Thordardottir, Lisa Domegan, Eva Kelly, Joan O'Donell, Alberto-Mateo Urdiales, Flavia Riccardo, Chiara Sacco, Viktoras Bumšteinas, Rasa Liausediene, Joël Mossong, Anne Vergison, Maria-Louise Borg, Tanya Melillo, Dragan Kocinski, Enkela Pollozhani, Hinta Meijerink, Diana Costa, João Paulo Gomes, Pedro Pinto Leite, Alina Druc, Veaceslav Gutu, Valentin Mita, Mihaela Lazar, Rodica Popescu, Odette Popovici, Monika Musilová, Maja Mrzel, Maja Socan, Veronika Učakar, Aurora Limia, Clara Mazagatos, Carmen Olmedo, Gavin Dabrera, Meaghan Kall, Mary Sinnathamby, Graham McGowan, Jim McMenamin, Kirsty Morrison, Dorit Nitzan, Marc-Alain Widdowson, Catherine Smallwood, Richard Pebody
{"title":"Estimated number of lives directly saved by COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023: a retrospective surveillance study.","authors":"Margaux M I Meslé, Jeremy Brown, Piers Mook, Mark A Katz, José Hagan, Roberta Pastore, Bernhard Benka, Monika Redlberger-Fritz, Nathalie Bossuyt, Veerle Stouten, Catharina Vernemmen, Elisabet Constantinou, Marek Maly, Jan Kynčl, Ondrej Sanca, Tyra Grove Krause, Lasse Skafte Vestergaard, Tuija Leino, Eero Poukka, Kassiani Gkolfinopoulou, Kassiani Mellou, Maria Tsintziloni, Zsuzsanna Molnár, Gudrun Aspelund, Marianna Thordardottir, Lisa Domegan, Eva Kelly, Joan O'Donell, Alberto-Mateo Urdiales, Flavia Riccardo, Chiara Sacco, Viktoras Bumšteinas, Rasa Liausediene, Joël Mossong, Anne Vergison, Maria-Louise Borg, Tanya Melillo, Dragan Kocinski, Enkela Pollozhani, Hinta Meijerink, Diana Costa, João Paulo Gomes, Pedro Pinto Leite, Alina Druc, Veaceslav Gutu, Valentin Mita, Mihaela Lazar, Rodica Popescu, Odette Popovici, Monika Musilová, Maja Mrzel, Maja Socan, Veronika Učakar, Aurora Limia, Clara Mazagatos, Carmen Olmedo, Gavin Dabrera, Meaghan Kall, Mary Sinnathamby, Graham McGowan, Jim McMenamin, Kirsty Morrison, Dorit Nitzan, Marc-Alain Widdowson, Catherine Smallwood, Richard Pebody","doi":"10.1016/S2213-2600(24)00179-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>By March, 2023, 54 countries, areas, and territories (hereafter CAT) in the WHO European Region had reported more than 2·2 million COVID-19-related deaths to the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Here, we estimated how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this retrospective surveillance study, we estimated the number of lives directly saved by age group, vaccine dose, and circulating variant-of-concern (VOC) period, regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and infection, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, and SARS-CoV-2 virus characterisations by lineage downloaded from The European Surveillance System on June 11, 2023, as well as vaccine effectiveness data from the literature. We included data for six age groups (25-49 years, 50-59 years, ≥60 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years). To be included in the analysis, CAT needed to have reported both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality data for at least one of the four older age groups. Only CAT that reported weekly data for both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality by age group for 90% of study weeks or more in the full study period were included. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>Between December, 2020, and March, 2023, in 34 of 54 CAT included in the analysis, COVID-19 vaccines reduced deaths by 59% overall (CAT range 17-82%), representing approximately 1·6 million lives saved (range 1·5-1·7 million) in those aged 25 years or older: 96% of lives saved were aged 60 years or older and 52% were aged 80 years or older; first boosters saved 51% of lives, and 60% were saved during the Omicron period.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>Over nearly 2·5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among the most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.</p>","PeriodicalId":51307,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Respiratory Medicine","volume":" ","pages":"714-727"},"PeriodicalIF":38.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Lancet Respiratory Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(24)00179-6","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/8/7 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CRITICAL CARE MEDICINE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: By March, 2023, 54 countries, areas, and territories (hereafter CAT) in the WHO European Region had reported more than 2·2 million COVID-19-related deaths to the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Here, we estimated how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023.
Methods: In this retrospective surveillance study, we estimated the number of lives directly saved by age group, vaccine dose, and circulating variant-of-concern (VOC) period, regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and infection, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, and SARS-CoV-2 virus characterisations by lineage downloaded from The European Surveillance System on June 11, 2023, as well as vaccine effectiveness data from the literature. We included data for six age groups (25-49 years, 50-59 years, ≥60 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years). To be included in the analysis, CAT needed to have reported both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality data for at least one of the four older age groups. Only CAT that reported weekly data for both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality by age group for 90% of study weeks or more in the full study period were included. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths.
Findings: Between December, 2020, and March, 2023, in 34 of 54 CAT included in the analysis, COVID-19 vaccines reduced deaths by 59% overall (CAT range 17-82%), representing approximately 1·6 million lives saved (range 1·5-1·7 million) in those aged 25 years or older: 96% of lives saved were aged 60 years or older and 52% were aged 80 years or older; first boosters saved 51% of lives, and 60% were saved during the Omicron period.
Interpretation: Over nearly 2·5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among the most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures.
Funding: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
期刊介绍：
The Lancet Respiratory Medicine is a renowned journal specializing in respiratory medicine and critical care. Our publication features original research that aims to advocate for change or shed light on clinical practices in the field. Additionally, we provide informative reviews on various topics related to respiratory medicine and critical care, ensuring a comprehensive coverage of the subject.
The journal covers a wide range of topics including but not limited to asthma, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), tobacco control, intensive care medicine, lung cancer, cystic fibrosis, pneumonia, sarcoidosis, sepsis, mesothelioma, sleep medicine, thoracic and reconstructive surgery, tuberculosis, palliative medicine, influenza, pulmonary hypertension, pulmonary vascular disease, and respiratory infections. By encompassing such a broad spectrum of subjects, we strive to address the diverse needs and interests of our readership.
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