Attributable deaths in Austria due to ozone under different climate scenarios.

Abstract

Tropospheric ozone is an air pollutant that poses a public health problem in Europe. Climate change could increase the formation of ozone. Applying past and predicted annual total (all-cause) mortality data and modeled daily ozone concentrations, we performed a nationwide health impact assessment estimating annual ozone-related (attributable) deaths in Austria. Different approaches were compared. Estimates were based on maximal 1-h averages of ozone. Until the decade from 2045 till 2055, more people will die in Austria because of the demographic trends. Therefore, more deaths will also be attributable to ozone. Higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6) will lead to more ozone-related deaths, mostly due to the national emission of ozone precursors (a difference of 250-340 cases per year, depending on the model), but to a lesser extent because of global climate change. Increases in attributable deaths will be affected mostly by national, not global mitigation measures. National emission reduction will certainly have a strong and beneficial effect on local atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and public health.