Are disruptive papers more likely to impact technology and society?

Abstract

In exploring the intersection of scholarly research with technological advancement and societal impact, our analysis delves into nearly 40 million research papers spanning from 1950 to 2020 across all fields of study in science. Our scrutiny reveals an intriguing phenomenon: papers characterized by a higher CD index, often considered transformative, paradoxically exhibit a diminished propensity to influence technological and societal domains. This observation suggests a latent bias against the CD index, prompting a deeper inquiry into its implications. To unravel this trend, we introduce the concept of “disruptive citation,” a nuanced metric gauging the absolute disruptive impact of papers. Notably, papers drawing higher disruptive citations exhibit a significantly higher probability to influence both technological and societal spheres. Upon examining the heterogeneity across years and fields, we identify a bias against the CD index predominantly in the last two decades and within STEM fields. However, the positive effects of disruptive impact remain consistent across all years and fields. Our findings remain robust even when employing alternative measures of disruptive impact and controlling for total citations. By shedding light on these dynamics, our study seeks to enrich discussions regarding the recognition and role of disruptive scientific endeavors in shaping our world.