Australia's zero emissions target requires ecological restoration at the continental scale, but there are two big unknowns and one major risk

Abstract

An increasing number of countries are adopting net‐zero‐emissions targets requiring large‐scale removal of CO2‐e through ecological restoration. Are these plans feasible, and will they transform the realm of restoration ecology? We use Australia's plan for net‐zero emissions as a test case. Widespread degradation across Australia's ecoregions, from savannas to seagrasses, provide opportunities for restoration, producing “negative emissions.” The basic science on carbon stocks and flows is available. However, large gaps in the existing measurement methods obscures failure, or fails to incentivize action and the potential for emissions reductions is unknown. Other countries intentions for emissions coverage is currently unknown and extensive use of land for carbon abatement could cause leakage of Australia's agricultural emissions offshore. A key risk is the permanence of ecosystem carbon under a changing climate. Considering its heavy reliance on ecological restoration, these risks and unknowns suggest that Australia's plan is not, or at least not yet, feasible.