A nomogram for predicting low cardiac output syndrome in older patients undergoing acute type A aortic dissection surgery.

Abstract

Objective: Low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) is a dangerous postoperative complication in patients with acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD). This study aims to develop and evaluate a nomogram model that can reliably identify risk variables for postoperative LCOS in elderly patients suffering from ATAAD.

Patients and methods: In this retrospective study, a total of 310 elderly patients with ATAAD admitted to Fujian Medical University Union Hospital were included and categorized into the LCOS and non-LCOS groups. Stepwise logistic regression was used to analyze independent predictors of LCOS, and a nomogram was constructed. The best clinical decision points were found using decision analysis and a clinical impact curve.

Results: Postoperative LCOS occurred in 22 (7.1%) of elderly patients with ATAAD. Independent risk factors for postoperative LCOS were age, smoking history, aortic cross-clamp (ACC), coronary heart disease (CHD), and preoperative shock. The nomogram constructed based on the identified risk factors showed good performance.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that preventive treatment can be administered when needed when the risk of LCOS in older patients with ATAAD after surgery is >60%. This study contributes to developing a methodology that may improve therapeutic decision-making in older patients and provides insights for assessing the risk of LCOS.