Effects of climate change and land use on the hydrologic regime using the Hydro-BID tool: a case study of the Andean mountain basin in Colombia

Abstract

Changes on the land surface caused due to human activities or natural events generate changes in land cover, which directly affect the availability of water in watersheds. This article evaluates the case study regarding the effects on the hydrological regime of the Andean mountain basin on the Coello river basin in Colombia due to changes in land use/land cover during the 2000–2019 period by the use of the Hydro-BID tool. The physical analysis of the land surface included the processing of Landsat 7 ETM and Landsat 8 OLI satellite images for the years 2001, 2003, 2015, and 2019. Seven types of coverage were determined based on these data using the Mixed Gaussian Method. The changes between each year were evaluated, after which the land use/land cover change for the year 2050 was predicted using a Markov chain. The multi-temporal analysis showed a decrease in forested areas during the studied period, while low vegetation significantly increased within the watershed. This trend was shown to continue in the future scenario for the year 2050, with an increase in flow on the watershed of 59.6%. Additionally, the climate change scenarios were modeled with the changes in land use. The combined effects established a progressive decrease in the modal flow.