Central American climate extreme trends: A statistical analysis of CLIMDEX indices

IF 3.5 3区地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI:10.1002/joc.8571

Marcela Alfaro-Córdoba, Natali P. Mora-Sandí, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Eric J. Alfaro

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Abstract

Precipitation and temperature extremes from daily data indexed using the CLIMDEX methodology were calculated over the Central American region. The data comprises the coarsened versions of the Climate Hazards and Infrared Precipitation with stations (CHIRPs) and the corresponding data set for temperature (CHIRTs) from the year 1981 to 2020 and 1983 to 2016, respectively. The objective is to detect trend patterns in extremes in recent periods, use novel statistical techniques for assessing the trend significance and study the monthly and annual trends for each of the indices. Trends of extreme temperature indices show more consistent, robust and widespread significant results according with the observed warming of the region. Significant extreme precipitation indices trends are more localized, and therefore harder to analyse, but it seems that one robust result from several indices is the trend toward more intense extreme precipitation events in Costa Rica. The findings of this work suggest possible impacts in human and environmental systems across the region.

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中美洲极端气候趋势：CLIMDEX 指数统计分析

采用 CLIMDEX 方法计算了中美洲地区的日降水量和极端气温。这些数据包括分别从 1981 年至 2020 年和 1983 年至 2016 年的气候灾害和红外降水量站（CHIRPs）和相应的温度数据集（CHIRTs）的粗略版本。研究的目的是发现近期极端天气的趋势模式，使用新的统计技术评估趋势的显著性，并研究每个指数的月度和年度趋势。根据观测到的该地区气候变暖情况，极端气温指数的趋势显示出更加一致、稳健和广泛的显著结果。极端降水量指数的显著趋势更加局部化，因此更难分析，但从几个指数中得出的一个可靠结果是，哥斯达黎加的极端降水事件有更加剧烈的趋势。这项工作的结果表明，可能会对整个地区的人类和环境系统产生影响。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

7.70%

发文量

417

审稿时长

4 months

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions